Iran War going to topple stock market especially AI stocks? I read this today.

"The entire AI play, and most US stocks are dead

The Iran war was meant to be a quick expedition. It’s now going to be the collapse of the AI play.

No matter what, oil is going to be significantly more expensive. The fastest and easiest option is the US backs out of the war. If they do, Iran enacts a toll, and a large portion of oil begins switching from dollar trades to yuan (or some other currency China chooses). The less easy option is Trump commits to the war. In that case, Iran oil infrastructure is destroyed, as well as the oil infrastructure of most of the other Gulf nations.

Then the waterfall begins.

Higher gas prices mean more expensive energy. Expensive energy means inflation, which means rate hikes. AI stocks suffer.

At the same time, they need to run data centers off more expensive energy into what should be the hottest summer ever recorded. Opex balloons 3-4x on already razor thin margins. This delays AI training and makes AI usage less sustainable. The result? Dead earnings off AI. Why do you think every data center stock is tanking today?

Now all of this ignores the effects on the treasury market. Gulf states that buy US treasures have less money to do so. If they try to force US rate cuts, the treasury market spikes and US debt goes from already insolvent to impossibly insolvent.

The dead nail would be if China decides it time to take Taiwan while the US is stuck in a protracted land war. It would mark a complete collapse in the faith the world has in US strength, and a drop off of the US dollar and treasuries as safe havens.

Long story short, QQQ puts, $450, Jan 17"